Rory Sutherland – Are We Now Too Impatient to Be Intelligent? | Nudgestock 2024

Summary

The speaker explores the subjective nature of time, challenging the assumption that 'faster is always better'. Using humor and anecdotes, they discuss how our perception of time impacts decision-making in various aspects of life, from transportation to advertising. They argue for a reevaluation of our rush towards efficiency, suggesting that sometimes, embracing the slower pace can lead to more meaningful and valuable experiences.

Takeaways

• 😀 The script starts with a joke to illustrate the tendency to prioritize urgent matters over important ones, which can have negative consequences.
• 🕒 It discusses the subjective nature of time perception, using the example of a speedometer and a 'Pomer' to show how time savings are perceived differently at various speeds.
• 🛣️ The speaker emphasizes that small increases in speed have diminishing returns in time saved, suggesting that going from 80 to 90 mph saves less time than going from 10 to 20 mph.
• 🚄 The script critiques the focus on high-speed rail, arguing that for it to be time-efficient, the distances traveled would need to be so great that air travel might be more appropriate.
• 🎫 It points out the bias in travel applications that assume users are always in a hurry, neglecting the option to save money by taking a slower, more scenic route.
• 🗺️ The speaker criticizes Google Maps for not offering scenic routes, suggesting it is biased towards efficiency and short travel times, even if they lead to less safe areas.
• 🚂 The script suggests that if the brief for high-speed rail were given to Disney, the focus would be on making the journey enjoyable rather than just fast.
• 🤖 It criticizes the reliance on optimization models in decision-making, which can ignore human preferences and truths in favor of a single 'right' answer.
• 📧 The speaker regrets the instantaneous nature of email, suggesting it has led to a constant need to check for new messages and a decrease in productivity.
• 🎨 The script highlights the idea that the opposite of a good idea can be another good idea, using examples of how slowness can be turned into a strength in various contexts.
• 🏠 It concludes by questioning the assumption that faster is always better, suggesting that there are areas of life where slowness and inefficiency can be valuable.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the speaker's presentation?

The main theme of the speaker's presentation is the subjective nature of time and how the rush for efficiency and speed can sometimes overshadow the importance of other factors in various aspects of life, including transportation, communication, and decision-making.

What joke does the speaker begin with and what is the underlying message of the joke?

The speaker begins with a joke about a copywriter, an art director, and an advertising account man who encounter a genie while boarding a plane. The underlying message is that we often let the urgent drown out the important, and in doing so, we may be ruining things for everyone else.

Why does the speaker mention the concept of a 'Pomer' in relation to time and speed?

The speaker mentions the 'Pomer' to illustrate the subjective perception of time and the relative value of time saved when traveling at different speeds. It shows that the perceived time saved by speeding up can be deceiving and may not always be as significant as we think.

What is the speaker's opinion on high-speed rail and why?

The speaker believes that high-speed rail is not always practical or beneficial because the time saved by traveling at very high speeds only becomes significant over long distances, where air travel might be a more efficient option.

How does the speaker relate the concept of time to the way we use technology like email and video conferencing?

The speaker suggests that the immediacy of email and the normalization of video conferencing have not been thoroughly examined for their impact on productivity and human interaction. He implies that these technologies, while beneficial, can also lead to over-optimization and a loss of human touch in communication.

What is the 'maker schedule' versus 'manager schedule' concept mentioned by the speaker?

The 'maker schedule' versus 'manager schedule' concept refers to how different types of work require different time commitments. A 'maker schedule' is characterized by longer, uninterrupted blocks of time for deep work, while a 'manager schedule' is filled with short, back-to-back meetings. The speaker suggests that the latter can be detrimental to productivity.

What does the speaker suggest about the enjoyment of commuting and how does it relate to time?

The speaker suggests that contrary to common belief, some people actually enjoy their commute, particularly the commute home. This enjoyment is tied to the idea that travel time can provide a decompression buffer between work and home life, highlighting that not all time spent in transit is a disutility.

What is the 'cost disease' model by William Ball and how does it relate to the perception of time?

The 'cost disease' model by William Ball explains the economic phenomenon where the cost of services, which are time-dependent, has increased over time, while the cost of manufactured goods has decreased due to efficiencies in production. This relates to the perception of time in that we value the time saved in manufacturing but may not place the same value on time spent in services.

What is the speaker's concern regarding the automation and efficiency in advertising and how does it relate to the value of time?

The speaker is concerned that the drive for efficiency in advertising, such as using AI to quickly produce content, may bypass the valuable process of creating and reflecting on the advertising itself. This process often leads to deeper understanding and differentiation of a business, which is lost when the focus is solely on speed.

What does the speaker propose as an alternative to the assumption that 'faster is always better'?

The speaker proposes that we should deliberately and consciously slow down certain aspects of life for our own sanity and productivity. He suggests that the value of some experiences and processes lies in the inefficiency, the time spent, and the effort invested, rather than in the speed of completion.

What is the concept of 'slow AI' that the speaker introduces and why is it relevant?

The concept of 'slow AI' introduced by the speaker refers to the idea of allowing AI to take more time in processing and providing information or ideas, rather than expecting instantaneous responses. This is relevant because it challenges the assumption that speed is always beneficial and suggests that a more thoughtful, slower approach may lead to better outcomes.

Outlines

00:00

😄 The Paradox of Urgency and Importance

The speaker begins with a humorous advertising joke involving a copywriter, art director, and account man encountering a genie, which serves as an analogy for prioritizing urgent matters over important ones. This leads to a discussion on the subjective nature of time perception, using the example of a speedometer and a 'Pomer' to illustrate how the perception of time savings varies with speed. The speaker emphasizes the fallacy of always seeking to save time and the potential risks and inefficiencies of very high-speed rail, suggesting that sometimes, a slower pace can be more beneficial.

05:03

🎨 The Misguided Prioritization of Time Efficiency

The speaker critiques the modern obsession with time-saving, using the example of train tickets and scenic routes to highlight how algorithms and systems often fail to consider the value of a more leisurely pace. They discuss the impact of Google Maps' refusal to offer scenic routes and the tendency of engineers and businesses to focus on speed and efficiency over enjoyment and experience. The speaker advocates for a more human-centered approach to problem-solving that takes into account the emotional and experiential aspects of time.

10:03

🚂 The Hidden Value in Commuting and the Dangers of Optimization

The speaker explores the counterintuitive finding that many people enjoy their commute, particularly the return journey home, and how this challenges the conventional wisdom that travel time is always a negative. They discuss the repercussions of treating travel time as a disutility and the risks of relying on optimization models that ignore human preferences. The speaker also touches on the broader implications of technology like email and video conferencing, which can be beneficial when coordinated but detrimental when left to individual discretion.

15:04

📈 The Consequences of Acceleration and the Loss of Choice

The speaker delves into the historical and societal impacts of acceleration, from the 19th-century railway to modern technology, and how it has led to an increase in choices and a decrease in satisfaction. They discuss the transformation of options into obligations and the resulting loss of autonomy and fairness. The speaker also examines the cultural differences in communication speed as a form of politeness and how human psychology is capable of perceiving the same situation in multiple ways, unlike mathematical models and algorithms.

20:04

🏠 The High Cost of Efficiency in Services and Advertising

The speaker discusses the William Baumol cost disease model, which explains the increasing cost of services compared to the decreasing cost of manufactured goods. They highlight the importance of selling 'slow' in certain contexts, such as high-end products, and the value of the effort invested in the process of persuasion. The speaker argues that the drive for efficiency in advertising may be self-defeating and that the process of creating an advertisement can be more valuable than the ad itself, as it forces businesses to reflect on their identity and appeal.

25:06

🤖 The Case for Slow AI and the Importance of Deliberation

In the final paragraph, the speaker challenges the assumption that AI interactions must be instantaneous and questions the value of immediate responses. They propose the idea of 'slow AI' that would allow for reflection and deliberation over time, suggesting that there are times when a slower approach to decision-making and communication could be more beneficial for mental health and productivity. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the need to question the universal belief that faster is always better.

Keywords

💡Urgency vs. Importance

This concept refers to the tendency to prioritize tasks based on immediate deadlines or pressure, often at the expense of long-term goals or values. In the video, the speaker uses the analogy of an advertising account man needing his colleagues back for a meeting to illustrate how the urgent can overshadow the important, which relates to the theme of valuing time and making decisions that consider both short-term and long-term impacts.

💡Perception of Time

Perception of time is the subjective experience of the duration and passage of time, which can vary greatly between individuals. The video discusses how our understanding of time can be manipulated or altered, such as by reframing how we view the time saved by driving at different speeds, thereby affecting our decision-making processes.

💡Speedometer and Pomer

A speedometer measures the speed of a vehicle in miles per hour, while a 'Pomer' is a fictional device introduced in the video that measures the time it takes to travel a certain distance at a given speed. The video uses these as metaphors to explore the subjective nature of time and the irrationality of our reactions to saving time at different speeds.

💡Optimization

Optimization is the process of making the best or most effective use of a situation or resource. The video critiques the idea that optimization models, which often assume that faster is always better, can lead to ignoring human preferences and experiences, such as the enjoyment some people find in commuting or the value of a slower-paced train journey.

💡Scenic Routes

Scenic routes refer to paths or routes taken for their aesthetic appeal rather than their efficiency. The video mentions how applications like Google Maps prioritize short distances and times over scenic routes, reflecting a bias towards speed and efficiency over the potential enjoyment and experience of a journey.

💡High-Speed Rail

High-speed rail is a mode of transportation that emphasizes speed and efficiency. The speaker argues that for high-speed rail to save significant time, it requires long distances that are often more practical to cover by air, suggesting that the push for speed may not always align with practicality or human preference.

💡Time Management

Time management involves organizing and planning the available time to increase efficiency or productivity. The video discusses how the immediacy of email and the expectation to respond quickly have negatively impacted productivity, challenging the assumption that faster communication is always beneficial.

💡Switching Costs

Switching costs are the costs or efforts associated with changing from one service, product, or process to another. The video mentions these in the context of algorithm design, suggesting that rapid switching between tasks or processes can lead to inefficiencies and a loss of focus.

💡Social Acceleration

Social acceleration is a concept that describes the increasing pace of societal and technological change. The video references this concept to discuss the potential negative impacts of acceleration on human satisfaction and well-being, suggesting that too much choice and speed can lead to dissatisfaction.

💡Efficiency vs. Experience

The video contrasts the pursuit of efficiency with the value of experience, suggesting that while efficiency can streamline processes, it can also detract from the quality of human interactions and experiences. For example, the video discusses how the fast-paced production line approach to coffee at Starbucks was slowed down to enhance the customer experience.

💡Cost Disease

Cost disease is a theory that explains the rise in the cost of labor-intensive service sectors compared to the falling costs of goods-producing sectors due to technological advancements. The video uses this concept to discuss broader economic trends and the changing value of time in different sectors, such as the relative inexpensiveness of manufactured goods versus the rising cost of services.

💡Slow AI

Slow AI is a concept introduced in the video that questions the assumption that AI interactions must be instantaneous. The speaker suggests that there may be value in allowing AI to deliberate over time, reflecting on ideas or solutions, rather than providing immediate responses, which could lead to more thoughtful and valuable outcomes.

Highlights

The importance of distinguishing between what is urgent and what is important, as the short-term often drowns out long-term considerations.

The subjective nature of time perception and how it can be manipulated to influence behavior.

The concept of 'Pomer', a measure showing the time it takes to travel a certain distance at a given speed.

The difference in time saved when increasing speed from 10 to 30 mph versus from 80 to 90 mph, highlighting the diminishing returns of speed.

The psychological impact of presenting time and distance information differently, affecting people's reactions to travel time.

The inefficiency of very high-speed rail for saving time over certain distances, where air travel might be more practical.

The assumption in travel applications that users prioritize saving time over other factors like cost or scenery.

The idea that reframing time can lead to different perceptions and decisions, such as choosing a slower, more scenic route.

The impact of email's instantaneousness on productivity and the suggestion of implementing a time buffer for checking emails.

The enjoyment some people find in commuting and the challenge to traditional models that assume travel time is always a disutility.

The potential benefits of slowing down certain processes, like the Uber map feature that reduces uncertainty in wait times.

The cultural differences in communication speed as a form of politeness, reflecting respect for time in different contexts.

The idea that the opposite of a good idea can be another good idea, suggesting that context is key in determining value.

The concept of 'cost disease' and how it affects the economy, with manufactured goods becoming cheaper and services more expensive.

The argument that the process of creating advertising can be more valuable than the ads themselves due to the introspection it requires.

The potential downsides of AI in advertising, where the instantaneous nature of AI could detract from the value of the creative process.

The question of what 'slow AI' might look like and whether a more deliberate, slower interaction with AI could be beneficial.

The need to question the assumption that faster is always better and to consider when slowing down might be more appropriate.

Transcripts

[Music]

I thought I'd start off with something

that is of huge use um actually no I'll

start off with a joke uh David Ole used

to tell this joke it dates it and so I

apologize for not updating the gender of

the

participants but the joke is an old

advertising joke and it's that a

copywriter an art director and an

advertising account man are boarding a

plane to go to a CL

presentation and it's slightly

implausibly they open the overhead

locker and a genie pops

out and the genie says I've been stuck

in that Bloody overhead Locker for 10

years as a reward I've only got three

wishes but I'll give you one each and

the genie turns first to the copywriter

and says what's your wish said I think

I'd like the life and the pro style of

Hemingway I just like to live that life

I'd like to write that way I can't think

of anything better and poof the

copyright disappears turns to the art

director what would you

like it's got to be Picasso you know

think about it the locations the

lifespan the eye the beauty the women

folk I'd like the life of Pablo Picasso

and bof the art director disappears and

so the genie turns to the advertising

account man and says what about you he

says I want those two guys back I've got

an important meeting in two and a half

hours and in that joke there's a kind of

analogy I think for the present day

which is that we've sometimes

allowed the Urgent to actually drown out

the

important the short-term consideration

drowns out the long-term consideration

but in the process rather like that

account man we may also be ruining it

for everybody

else I'll come to that thought but I'll

start with something which I always

share in my presentations for a very

good reason which I think it might save

somebody's life in the room genuinely so

this shows how extraordinarily

subjective

our perception of time is now you're all

familiar well those of you over 35 who

can afford a car are familiar with the

thing around the outside that that's a

speedometer okay that's denoted in miles

per hour and the thing on the inside is

an interesting thing which is only

really recently been well not invented

but publicized which is a

Pomer now that shows how many minutes of

that speed it takes you to go 10 mil so

assuming you're going 10 miles okay at

10 mil an hour it'll take you an hour so

the Peter shows

60 now most of you would have noticed

something a bit strange about this which

is that whereas the numbers around the

outside are completely regular the

numbers around the inside are absolutely

anything but now the reason I always

share this with people is what it shows

is that actually if you're going 10

miles or 20 mil or 30 mil something in

that order of magnitude okay there's a

really really big time saving to be

gained by going at 30 m hour rather than

20 M hour in fact you'll save a whole 10

minutes okay just by accelerating about

10 m an hour on the other hand if you

Accelerate from 80 to 90 for example or

70 to 80 you basically save a minute now

some of you may have noticed this thing

with your surprise if you've got a GPS

in your car you've noticed that you're

driving on the motor at 60 you realize

you're going to be 5 minutes late for an

appointment so you well it and after

driving it an insanely f fast and

dangerous speed for about 8 minutes you

suddenly realize your arrival time has

only improved by 1

minute this is fascinating because to a

physicist they're exactly the same okay

but when I present the information about

time and distance in a different way

okay your reaction is now completely

different what it effectively says is

you know going quite a bit faster when

you're going slowly is a really big gain

going very fast when you're already

going fast is actually the action of a

basically once you hit a

comfortable 65 or 70 on the road okay

don't bother that's enough it's a waste

of time because the risk you actually

you encounter the risk you incur on

yourself the risk you actually

effectively impose on other people by

going any faster is utterly pointless in

term terms of time

saved that by the way explains why very

highspeed rail is kind of dumb because

for very highs speeded rail to save you

any any time you have to be traveling

the kind of distance where to be honest

you might as well go by plane okay it's

why there isn't really a case for those

super fast

trains so that's a useful application of

just reframing time of looking at it in

a completely different way which as I

said I think might save somebody's life

truly here's a slightly more venal um or

mercenary

application it fascinates me that all

rail um ticket buying applications

basically assume that you're in a hurry

it's kind of odd right maybe you want to

save money instead this on the top okay

is the ticket from watero to exitus and

Davids now it takes about an hour longer

it's very Scenic okay these are first

class uh tickets I don't that's how I

roll okay in in in in clear Defiance of

wpp's Transport policy which is let's

face it drawn up by a bunch of people in

the finance department who never have to

go anywhere okay

um but

um in order to find that vastly cheaper

ticket you actually have to search

waterl to exitus and Davids and type in

Via Salsbury okay unless you do that the

computer the algorithm will not show you

that ticket not because it isn't cheaper

it's a lot cheaper not because it is

nicer it's actually a lot nicer okay you

might even go through a few Tory

constituencies who knows okay

okay but because it's slower there's an

assumption that we want to save time and

this even comes across with a massive r

that briefly surfaced online which is

Google Maps refuses to offer Scenic

Roots because they might be biased okay

so actually it's somehow considered

objective to optimize around short

distances short times even if it Roots

you to an area which is downright

dangerous presumably okay but actually

saying why don't you take a bit more

time and the nice way no no apparently

that's

biased and then you get the whole

question of what happens when you give a

load of Engineers a brief and I always

ask the question if you taken the brief

for highp speeded 2 what would happen if

you hadn't given the brief to a lead of

engineering firms who immediately

focused on speed time distance capacity

what have you given the brief to Disney

instead

okay they would have said first of all

we're going to rewrite the question the

right question for highpe 2 is how do we

make the train journey between London

and Manchester so enjoyable people feel

stupid going by car that's the right

question okay it's not about time and

speed and distance those things only

obliquely or tangentially actually

correlate with human behavior human

preference Disney there will be asking

the right question why does that

question never get asked because it's an

open-ended question and business people

governments politicians aren't looking

to solve problems they're looking to win

arguments and the way way you win an

argument is you pretend that what should

be an open-ended question with many

possible right answers make it enjoyable

have free booze on the train put Wi-Fi

on the train have a ball pit on the

train for kids which are the Disney

answers those are multiple and involve

subjective decision making and um human

what you might call human judgment okay

you can't win an argument with those

what you do is you pretend this is a

high school maths problem with a single

right answer you solve for the right

answer using High School maths and then

nobody can argue with you because

apparently you haven't made a decision

you've simply followed the data okay

this is a massive problem in decision-

making that we try and close down the

solution space of any problem in order

to arrive at a single right answer which

it's difficult to argue with it's

fundamentally a massive creative

opportunity cost and yet there are

brilliant examples all over the place of

people tweaking time subjectively this

is one of my favorites the Uber map

doesn't change how long you wait for the

taxi it changes the quality of the

weight In Time by reducing uncertainty

actually if you look at human emotions

although humans might say I don't like

waiting for a taxi what what actually

makes them uneasy is the uncertainty of

the arrival and the lack of trust it's

not actually the duration so we're

optimizing for the numerical thing time

speed we're not optimizing for the

emotional state which is dis quiet or

anxiety as you can see advertising you

can Rebrand time there are quite a few

cases of this good things come to those

who wait what was the one downside of

Guinness bartenders hated it because it

took soding ages to pour okay in fact if

you wanted to make bar staff hate you

you just put in a huge order for drinks

and then and crisps and then and and end

up with and pint of Guinness okay and

they think I could have been

pouring that while you're telling me

about the other crap okay take a

weakness turn it into a

strength there's also the whole question

of time that we regard it as a kind of

odity as if it's fungible as if 10 time

10 minutes is the same as one chunk of a

100

minutes in human terms this is

absolutely not true I'm not going to

have time to read it now this is a

little paper by um Paul Graham the

founder of why combinator called maker

schedule manager schedule the mere

consciousness of an engagement will

sometimes worry a whole day that's

Charles Dickens in other words if you

try and break up your day into lots of

little chunks of time your productivity

is massive L destroyed even though the

time available is is pretty much

notionally the same one of the worst

mistakes we ever made was we made email

instantaneous we should have built in a

2-hour buffer unless you flagged the

email as time sensitive or urgent why is

that because now everybody has to check

their email every 10 or 15 minutes on

the off chance that someone has sent

them a time sensitive email so the

burden falls on the recipient which

means everybody rather than the sender

which means one person to actually sift

the Urgent messages from the important

but not time sensitive it is literally

been a productivity disaster uh in fact

um a total catastrophe no one talks

about it it's really odd this is a

fundamental catastrophe of the fact that

people have in fact one of the greatest

ways you can improve your productivity

is just setting your server to only

check for new emails about every 2 to

three

hours there's an extraordinary case I

mentioned this bias towards time saving

that faster must be better and I've got

to be careful to preserve anonymity here

but someone I know who's a very very

good expert at Transport for London who

does research for them and I'll keep

their gender and identity Secret in case

they don't want this to be known found

out in research that quite a lot of

people quite a lot of the time actually

enjoy commuting they much en they enjoy

the commute home much more than the

commute to work I think if I'm right men

enjoy it a bit more than women that's

cuz I say men a bit like Sky boxes we've

got a standby mode okay you know we like

a bit of staring if you look at Co

fishing 95% male right why is that

because course fishing is basically

staring with equipment okay right but

nonetheless quite a lot of people enjoy

their commute time and there's good

behavioral evidence for this because

economists have noticed that people

actually live a bit further from work

than they optimally should to create a

kind of chronological buffer between

where they work and where they live we

actually like that that decompression

time and so this person announces the

research to the people responsible for

transport modeling at Transport for

London and they say you must never tell

anybody that it's absolutely wrong for

you to say that people might actually

enjoy a train ride but a but it's kind

of true he said maybe it's true but all

our models that justify transport

investment assume that travel time is

always a disutility in other words the

more time you spend in transit the worse

off you are if you come along with FY

ideas suggesting that people may

sometimes prefer slower to faster it

up our whole model so this is

what's happened to the world which is

optimization

models actually Trump human preference

okay the people who actually want to win

the argument with the model effectively

are prepared to ignore human truths in

order to preserve the Integrity of the

artificial model and if you want a

really good book on this the account

unaccountability Machine by Dan Davis uh

which has only just come out is a

fantastic book where people create these

models effectively because if you can

reduce decision making to an algorithm

or a formula or a process or a procedure

okay you avoid the risk of blame

computer says no effectively it's a

whole great principle where

instinctively people love to codify

things and make them numerical and make

them what you might call optimization

problems with a single right answer like

that because if you make that bum

the second you acknowledge any ambiguity

okay you now have to exercise Choice

whereas if you can pretend there's no

ambiguity you haven't made a decision

you can't be blamed you can't be held

responsible what's the first thing you

remove if you want to remove ambiguity

from a model you remove human psychology

because human psychology particularly

around time is massively

ambiguous I think we just spend far too

little time talking about this we've had

an extraordinary change with the

invention of um video conferencing not

so much the invention of it but the

normalization of it virtually no time is

spent discussing how we best use this

technology the assumption is that if we

each use it optimally for ourselves it

will be optimal for the system as a

whole but the great lesson of w Edwards

Deming was if you want to optimize the

system you have to sub optimize the

parts there should be rules about this

it should be concentrated around Friday

whatever it might be I mean I did

actually the marketing director of Zoom

I hate to say this in in 2019 and I I

suggested they focused on Friday thank

Zoom it's Friday create a day around

which this activity and then just as she

was leaving I said of course um what you

really need is a major transport strike

or a small pandemic and I I feel a bit

sick every time I remember saying that

okay but we we're a full service agency

we put her in touch with the Wuhan

Institute of aurology

um anyway we should be thinking about

this a lot it's a complete gamech Cher

for any service business any B2B

business it's a very very significant

technology which like email can be

hugely beneficial if we coordinate it

and catastrophically bad if we leave it

to individual actors but we're making

the same mistake all over again this is

a book I can recommend by the way they

make the point massively about email

they make the point that in algorithm

design there are things called switching

costs every time you switch from one

process to another you basically lose

efficiency

any kind of use of human time or indeed

Computing time which involves rapid

switching is basically inefficient and

at some in some cases catastrophically

so and yet we're completely blind to

this we're also blind to the possible

downsides of accelerating things

unbelievably in the 19th century when

they finally built a railway to

California people are not making this up

people actually said imagine how much

Leisure we'll have if we can get to San

Francisco in 2 and 1 half days rather

than 2 weeks they actually imagined that

your clients wouldn't know that the

railway existed so you could pretend

you'd gone by ship spend 10 days playing

golf and then turn up by train

unfortunately that information actually

became widely known and you were

expected to turn up in two days and this

leads to a problem I think which which

bevil's many many Technologies and many

behaviors it starts as an option it then

becomes an obligation and we welcome the

technology at first because it presents

us with a choice and then suddenly

everybody else has to adopt the

technology and we suddenly realize we're

worse off than we were when we started

you can see that with things like four

in five motorists want to get rid of

parking apps that's not because parking

apps were bad necessarily it's because

they went from being an option to being

an obligation to a point where people

were installing them in kind of basement

car parks where you had no chance of a

mobile signal and that's the kind of

thing that happened

and it's worth remembering that when

behaviors become

Universal they affect everybody this is

a shot of a concert okay now you could

argue that this urge to photograph

everything prevents people from being in

the moment and you could say naively

well that's an individual choice if you

want to watch the concert watch the

concert and if you want to film the

concert film the concert but there's a

problem there because even if if you

don't want to film the concert the

behavior of everybody around you is

basically up the concert and the

weirder thing when I researched this

more is the people it most ruins the

concert for are actually the performers

who say we used to be performing to a

live crowd now it basically feels as if

we're just doing something to be sucked

into people's telephones it doesn't feel

the same to perform anymore because of

this Behavior so when one person does

something fine it's an option it's

something that somebody does when these

things become more widespread they morph

from being alternative options to

basically being social norms conventions

from which you have no

escape and there's a great book about

this by a German sociologist called harm

Rosa whose work is really about social

acceleration that effectively he he

dates this back to the Industrial

Revolution that the acceleration of

things has in a way made us miserable

because our choices are no longer

sufficiently limited that we feel we can

accomplish everything we want that

essentially we've created an

acceleration and an explosion of Choice

which will permanently leave us feeling

fundamentally unsatisfied or under

optimized it's a very very interesting

thing to read about actually no

coincidence I think that they chose the

front cover of the book Turner's rail um

Reign them and speed which is of course

a painting the hair is basically being

moaned down by the train or running in

front of the train which is basically a

painting exactly about that issue now I

don't think you can also by the way I

searched for the picture this and

unfortunately for about the next two

days I just got ads for magga

merchandise so there you go um I don't

think anybody who's alert to advertising

slogans can fail to notice that there's

something retrospective in all of these

slogans okay make America great again

suggests actually a return to the Past

Take Back Control again is a past

referential phrase I've got a vague soft

spot for it although I shouldn't for the

alternative for a Deutch land who have a

slogan Germany but normal okay I think

you'd be toned deaf to the population I

have to say that is quite good actually

okay you'd have to be tone deaf to the

population not to realize there is some

source of disqui with the pace of change

or the extent to which it is being

imposed without asking people on the

assumption that it's inevitable and I

would argue if we look at this scarf

model a massive acceleration of things

combined with an automation of things

combined with a kind of what you might

call I suppose what Dan Davis might call

unaccountability

syns basically makes us miserable

because it diminishes our status because

we can't actually make any decisions we

have to refer to something else it it

totally destroys our sense of certainty

it it reduces autonomy it reduces the

human interactive reciprocal nature of

relationships by effectively

streamlining everything to the point of

being impersonal and I think it also

massively attacks

fairness but the point about time which

fascinates me is I often say that the

opposite of a good idea can be another

good idea I mentioned that Guinness

thing you can turn the slow pow of a

Guinness into a virtue you can take a

long train journey and you can turn it

into a benefit you go on that train from

watero and pack a hamper actually it's a

day out rather than a tedious Journey

the great thing about the human brain is

it can process the same thing in two

different ways a mathematic IAL model

can never cope with that so every

mathematical model concerned with time

every algorithm will assume that faster

is better and as they mentioned with for

example sex there are certain things you

shouldn't try to accelerate okay 3.25

minutes that's my personal best okay

that's not a good idea all right um and

I owe this to a very valuable insight to

my colleague Colin nimic very brilliant

copyright WR at ogelby who said in New

York people speak fast in the American

South they speak slowly both of them are

a form of politeness understood in a

different way in New York you speak

quickly because you respect the value of

the other person's time and you don't

want to take up too much of it in the

South you speak slowly because you want

to respect the person by showing how

much of your own time you're prepared to

give to

them there are two behaviors which

depending on cultural context are

intended to attain the same end while

being completely opposite and I think

human psychology is absolutely packed

full of these things a kind of Union of

opposites if you read um for example um

the book influenc by Robert Shalini what

you realize is that actually many things

are successfully sold by opposites

everybody has one of these so it must be

good or not many people have one of

these so it must be good okay you can

achieve the same emotional effect with

an opposite thing there are two great

ways to check into a hotel one of them

is totally automated where you walk

straight to the room and use your phone

to unlock the door the other one is

where someone takes you up to the room

and makes you a cup of tea okay they're

both great check-in experiences they're

completely

opposite and so we got to understand

that what's daed is that sometimes as an

option self-checkouts are great okay as

an obligation they're they're bad

because sometimes the time spent in in

the process is where the value comes

from the value of something depends on

it being done slowly because the value

is in the journey not necessarily the

destination you can see this because

people on a Saturday love nothing better

than to shop in the most inefficient way

possible okay that's basically what a

farmer's market is okay it's basically

let's take a test go and reverse

everything okay you've got to go to

seven different places to buy anything

uh you got to have a chat with everybody

you buy something from okay it's

basically the mirror image but we enjoy

them both depending on the context

Starbucks actually forced people they

said stop making two drinks at once

you're in fact sorry you're only allowed

to make two drinks at once they actually

deliberately slowed down the process

because they realized that the the

parallel processing the batch processing

of coffee was destroying the experience

for the consumer because they didn't

feel they were getting a handmade coffee

they just felt they were part of a kind

of forest production line and they

deliberately slowed the process down now

that's contrary to my own retirement

idea which is to found a chain of Cy

shops for Railway stations called flat

white or off okay and the plan

behind this is I like this craft

experience okay in the High Street but

if I've got to catch the 647 I don't

want to be queuing behind some tosser

who wants to make an iced based drink

okay right so the whole point of this is

you tap your credit card you pick up the

flat white and if you ask for anything

else well I think the name is

self-explanatory okay now we actually

see this problem of time in the whole

economy this is William Ball's model of

cost disease which is we have a crazy

world this basically explains the whole

world since about 1920 where

manufactured goods where you can enjoy

extraordinary efficiencies of production

you can compress the time and effort

required to make something have

massively reduced in cost and service

have massively which are time dependent

have become more and more

expensive that actually explains if you

think there's a hell of a lot weird with

the world that was completely different

when you were a kid like the fact that a

television is almost an Impulse buy but

you agonize about getting child care all

right if you think the world's weird

when basically in 1920 it was the other

way around Agatha Christie had three

servants but in her early life but

couldn't dream of being able to afford a

car

okay that's what's basically been

happening but when it comes to selling

some things you've got to sell slow when

I bought one of these cooker Taps which

absolutely brilliant by the way okay now

yeah I know you're spending 800 quid on

a kettle I get the logic my wife used to

work in procurement she came up with all

this bowy crap okay the fact is it's

Miracle it's brilliant you get boiling

water straight out of a tab they

actually gave me a 30-minute sales

demonstration to my family over Zoom

from their showroom in Manchester now

that's expensive

compared to say some programmatic

advertising but that's how long it takes

to sell that product what I think we're

doing in advertising is we're starting

to Define our Target audiences not as

the people who could potentially buy our

product but as those people who are

prepared to engage with us in at high

speed in lowcost media okay now I think

there's a fundamental correlation

between in some ways the expense of a

medium okay the amount time and effort

that gets invested into an act of

persuasion and how persuasive it is I

think there's a costly signaling system

at work and I think our drive to

efficiency in advertising is actually

self-defeating

now let me just then explain very

briefly my concern very quickly with um

well actually I'll give you this example

here these people had triplets they

wanted to buy a house in Chesterfield

they wrote a handwritten letter to 15

people who had a house they'd like to

buy but which wasn't on the market

Market or 25 people it might have be

okay about eight people responded okay

five people I think invited them round

and they had offers from four of those

people now be mind none of those people

had their house on the market right when

you think about it that's pretty weird

Okay a life decision as momentous as do

we want to sell our house no okay is

changed by a handwritten letter that's

an extraordinary Act of persuasion

that's an extraordinary kind of nudge

it's an extraordinary kind of stimulus

and I think it works precisely because

of the effort they invested in the

communication I I genuinely think the

weight of that communication was driven

by the fact that it was actually

handwritten now here's my point okay

I'll end on this because I know they're

panicking now

okay most of you if you were students

wrote essays or something like that as

undergraduates as students right fairly

confident to say that nobody's actually

kept them right nobody's reread them in

fact the essays you wrote are totally

worthless okay of course okay however I

realize I'm showing my age by showing a

handwritten essay here whereas of course

you young people get your parents to

title for you um no anyway but

um the value wasn't in the essay the

actual end product is

worthless okay what's valuable is the

effort you had to put in to produce the

essay now what AI essays do is they

shortcut from the request to the

delivery of the finished good and by

pass the very part of the journey which

is actually valuable which is the time

and effort you invest in constructing

the essay in the first place the essay

is worthless okay you'll never go and

reread it and if you do you're

embarrassed what was valuable about that

essay was the effort required to produce

it now what I think will happen in AI

advertising if you're not careful is

actually the valuable part of

advertising is to some extent the

process of producing it not the

advertising itself because it forces you

to ask questions about a business which

people mostly never get around to asking

what do we stand for what what's our

function who who do we appeal to who's

our target audience how do we present

ourselves how do we differentiate

ourselves how do we make ourselves look

different and feel valuable to the

people who encounter us

okay Jerry bulmore was said if you're a

B2B client with no Media budget you

should still produce an advertising

campaign even if you never run it

because the process of producing the ad

may actually be more important than the

ad itself rather like the process of

writing the essay is actually more

valuable than the finished

product I think what we'll find

ourselves doing is there are things in

life which you want to telescope and

compress and accelerate and streamline

and make more efficient and there are

things where the value is precisely in

the inefficiency in the time spent in

the pain endured in the effort you have

to invest that's actually where the

value comes from and I don't think we're

going to differentiate between those

things because I think like the guy at

Transport for London the automatic

assumption is going to be that faster is

better and we need to understand when

actually we need to deploy slow so I'll

end actually with a very weird question

what does slow AI look like we've

automatically assumed that the way we

react with it and the way we interact

with it is

instantaneous are we sure that's right

would it be interesting to be able to

say to an AI look over the next three or

four months can you just give me some

ideas about holidays in Greece okay do

we want to make that de ision

immediately I don't think we do I think

we want to see things refine things

consider things I think we want to mull

them over I think we want to discuss

them so the vital question is the

general assumption which is driven by

these optimization models is always that

faster is better that email has to

arrive instantaneously you know that the

more you communicate the better it is

and every Communication channel should

be instantaneous I think along with I

think helmet Rosa I think there are

things we need to deliberately and

consciously slow down for our own sanity

and actually for our own productivity

but at the moment if we don't ask that

question about what those things are I

think we'll just get things terribly

terribly wrong so thank you very much

indeed

[Applause]

[Music]